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150,000 alcohol-related liver deaths predicted over next 20 years |
The number of alcohol related deaths in England and Wales has been on the rise since the 1980s. The Office for National Statistics recently released the latest figures on these deaths. In 2008 there were 7,344 deaths. This dropped to 7,099 in 2009 and rose again to 7,188 in 2010. Focussing on liver disease, a team including Nick Sherran and Ian Gilmore have used the data to make predictions about future mortality in England. By extrapolating from the current rate they estimate 150,000 alcohol related liver deaths will occur over the next 20 years. This assumes that liver deaths will continue to increase at the same rate and that a recent slowdown in the rate is only temporary. In fact, liver deaths have not risen significantly since 2006. The researchers have extrapolated from 2003 which shows a sharper upward trend, but they have taken into account the new data which has made their estimate lower than the one made in the previous year. It is also worth noting that the UK population is increasing and is expected to increase more over the next 20 years accounting for some of this rise.
The researchers hope England could see a reduction in liver deaths similar to that of France or Italy during the 1990s. This may not be realistic as those countries started with higher rates of liver death and which have now not fallen significantly below that of the UK.
The authors of the article call on the government to do more to fight alcohol harms. Although alcohol related disease often take years to develop, many alcohol related deaths are caused by recent drinking as acute liver failure is often triggered by a bout of binge drinking. Because of this, changes in government alcohol policy can have quick impact on the number of alcohol related deaths.
The Lancet - Projections of alcohol-related deaths in England and Wales—tragic toll or potential prize?
Straight Statistics - Drink death estimates trimmed
Office for National Statistics - Alcohol-related deaths in the United Kingdom, 2010
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